Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompson

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x775ffc29974c829d2ad3b989fd6ce99b2fe960519168b1662ccffe79c267d4fc

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Thompsonof Cerundolo, Thompson
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $74,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,714 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x61a3…b1e5backed Cerundolo	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cerundolo	32c	4,252$1,361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,360.61	761	40.6%309 W · 452 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cerundolo	30c	4,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.99	1,039	54.6%567 W · 472 L	+37.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…4a3cbacked Thompson	68c	3,720$2,542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,178.4	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Thompson	69c	2,376$1,629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$746.56	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Thompson	73c	2,262$1,648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.53	352	47.2%166 W · 186 L	-23.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo	50c	2,014$1,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,012.95	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cerundolo	31c	2,009$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.75	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Thompson	67c	2,000$1,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$659.99	443	60%266 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Thompson	68c	1,712$1,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$547.77	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f6…adc3backed Cerundolo	32c	1,707$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.28	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thompson	67c	1,576$1,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$517.29	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cerundolo	37c	1,398$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.64	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Thompson	67c	1,000$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330	36	69.4%25 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…bc98backed Thompson	69c	1,000$688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Cerundolo	31c	901.78$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.25	190	23.2%44 W · 146 L	-10.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Thompson	45c	583.78$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.17	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cerundolo	13c	461.23$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.19	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thompson	44c	365.02$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.73	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Thompson	68c	343.76$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	305	30.8%94 W · 211 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Thompson	45c	333.53$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.54	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Cerundolo	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Cerundolo	4c	299.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	108	9.3%10 W · 98 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cerundolo	33c	298$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.34	1,028	33.6%345 W · 683 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Cerundolo	34c	296.68$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.87	153	63.4%97 W · 56 L	+11.5wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Thompson	46c	251.7$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.01	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Thompson	47c	243.33$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.28	222	36.9%82 W · 140 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Cerundolo	33c	240$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	228	40.4%92 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked Cerundolo	54c	206.22$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.52	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cerundolo	31c	191.56$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.38	2,375	51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L	+8.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo	34c	187.4$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ec…0fb5backed Cerundolo	33c	152.18$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.22	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Cerundolo	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	982	40.1%394 W · 588 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Cerundolo	33c	137$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.21	257	43.6%112 W · 145 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Cerundolo	49c	129.27$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.45	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thompson	66c	127.65$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.4	279	44.1%123 W · 156 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c79…8b69backed Cerundolo	33c	121.21$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd29b…b518backed Thompson	42c	119.05$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.05	108	43.5%47 W · 61 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Cerundolo	47c	108.48$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Cerundolo	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Cerundolo	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	120	33.3%40 W · 80 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Cerundolo	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	128	46.9%60 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thompson	54c	82.15$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048b…cdb5backed Cerundolo	29c	81.18$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Thompson	68c	73.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.53	89	64%57 W · 32 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Cerundolo	65c	68.56$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x817e…537ebacked Cerundolo	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Cerundolo	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	606	61.2%371 W · 235 L	+20.7wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Cerundolo	20c	58.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-4.7wins	-0.22per pick	41cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Thompson	68c	51.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.47	161	58.4%94 W · 67 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Cerundolo	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a4…3fd8backed Thompson	64c	47.84$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.05	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Thompson	59c	47.14$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.53	281	39.1%110 W · 171 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Cerundolo	59c	46.86$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	238	32.4%77 W · 161 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cerundolo	34c	45.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	884	55%486 W · 398 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Cerundolo	31c	40.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	678	36%244 W · 434 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Thompson	68c	40.19$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.86	364	64.3%234 W · 130 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Cerundolo	32c	39.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	491	42.8%210 W · 281 L	-15.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Thompson	65c	35.63$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.62	276	27.2%75 W · 201 L	-25.2wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Cerundolo	32c	34.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-10.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Cerundolo	47c	33.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	161	44.7%72 W · 89 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Thompson	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	142	72.5%103 W · 39 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Thompson	65c	29.27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.23	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa660…f81abacked Cerundolo	57c	26.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Thompson	73c	22.86$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.17	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed Thompson	70c	20.87$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	66	57.6%38 W · 28 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Thompson	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	925	48.8%451 W · 474 L	+20.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x783b…3679backed Thompson	68c	19.85$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.35	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-6.0wins	-0.16per pick	63cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xeabd…8115backed Thompson	66c	18.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.41	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb85f…d1ecbacked Thompson	71c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	61cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Australian Open Men's: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompsonthis page
Cerundolo vs. Thompson: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs ThompsonCerundolo won
Set Handicap: Thompson (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5)Cerundolo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Australian Open Men's: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompson

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event