TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Pacific Tigers vs. Washington State Cougars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington State Cougarsof Pacific Tigers, Washington State Cougars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91fd…1cdebacked Washington State Cougars57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.9911048.2%53 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pacific Tigers44c3,540$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.211,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Pacific Tigers44c3,362$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.9437947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Washington State Cougars69c2,474$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.231,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Washington State Cougars77c1,634$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.2734943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pacific Tigers42c1,360$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.222,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Washington State Cougars72c1,328$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.772,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Washington State Cougars58c1,207$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.96446.9%30 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Washington State Cougars57c1,028$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.0974649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington State Cougars72c946.45$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.053,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington State Cougars74c922.42$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.821,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e7c…d12fbacked Pacific Tigers32c837.11$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.451729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d44…2f97backed Pacific Tigers17c836.61$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacific Tigers20c778$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.64,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Washington State Cougars57c767$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.811,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Pacific Tigers29c760.36$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.21,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b4…f93bbacked Pacific Tigers38c675.98$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c9…f6e0backed Pacific Tigers30c594$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pacific Tigers16c584$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.442,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Pacific Tigers46c580.6$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.631,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington State Cougars78c567.39$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.133,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff0…2e7fbacked Washington State Cougars58c533.96$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Pacific Tigers27c527$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7699848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Pacific Tigers43c516$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.889545.3%43 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Washington State Cougars53c448$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.5681453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Washington State Cougars75c428.61$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1536845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pacific Tigers44c409.09$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Pacific Tigers18c400$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7125325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Pacific Tigers47c300$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.52,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Washington State Cougars52c291.67$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Washington State Cougars57c284$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1291848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pacific Tigers40c283.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.771,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Washington State Cougars74c269.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1522157.9%128 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington State Cougars57c235.91$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.411,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Washington State Cougars61c235.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0893247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Pacific Tigers43c232.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington State Cougars66c220.01$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.181,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Washington State Cougars69c205.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.852070%14 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pacific Tigers47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Pacific Tigers45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Washington State Cougars52c194.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.631647.8%151 W · 165 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Washington State Cougars51c188.02$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.422,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacific Tigers24c184.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.755,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Washington State Cougars57c175.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.388643%37 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Pacific Tigers43c174.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7531537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Washington State Cougars77c170$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9119641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Washington State Cougars73c149.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.32,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Pacific Tigers24c138$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.123,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Pacific Tigers48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.841,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb34…a600backed Washington State Cougars50c114.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.22977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Washington State Cougars53c103.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7712655.6%70 W · 56 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Pacific Tigers46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4614553.1%77 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc4…4f2cbacked Pacific Tigers43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Pacific Tigers16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1644146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Washington State Cougars53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4738351.7%198 W · 185 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Pacific Tigers48c82.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.365646.4%26 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Pacific Tigers46c77.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.561,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Pacific Tigers20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.133445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Washington State Cougars55c72.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7392246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb851…824fbacked Pacific Tigers29c70.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Pacific Tigers33c69.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7970936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85e3…5906backed Washington State Cougars58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Pacific Tigers49c67.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Pacific Tigers47c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.840849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Washington State Cougars35c62.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5813565.9%89 W · 46 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Washington State Cougars74c60.13$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.871,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Washington State Cougars57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.864658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pacific Tigers25c57.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacific Tigers21c55.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Pacific Tigers43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.59035.6%32 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Washington State Cougars38c49.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8735852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Pacific Tigers62c49.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.244930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Pacific Tigers47c44.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Washington State Cougars80c43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6531666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Washington State Cougars49c42.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7810259.8%61 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…453dbacked Washington State Cougars71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.259849%48 W · 50 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Washington State Cougars54c41.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.074,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Pacific Tigers29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.652353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed Washington State Cougars52c38.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2719860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Washington State Cougars53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7449849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Washington State Cougars57c36.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7511552.2%60 W · 55 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35c8…90cbbacked Pacific Tigers43c36.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.621070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Pacific Tigers35c34.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0418557.8%107 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Pacific Tigers40c32.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9271655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pacific Tigers42c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4484854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d3…09f9backed Washington State Cougars55c31.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.043850%19 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff4…4524backed Washington State Cougars58c31.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pacific Tigers47c30.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2435243.2%152 W · 200 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1989…2370backed Pacific Tigers47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Washington State Cougars52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.445953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Pacific Tigers54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Pacific Tigers45c25.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.642,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Washington State Cougars57c25.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0910353.4%55 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Washington State Cougars71c25.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.381,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Washington State Cougars57c23.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0921651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Washington State Cougars57c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8981528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacific Tigers48c20.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.135,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c5a…9b3bbacked Washington State Cougars58c20.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.691457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked Washington State Cougars55c18.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.353966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.