Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e78b30424fcc3ff722efdf60f336fade5130232a2beae4bdb9e88f9e3baeed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Swiatek, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked Swiatek | 50c | 13,521$6,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,769.26 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pegula | 50c | 10,061$5,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,029.65 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Pegula | 50c | 2,046$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.18 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Pegula | 50c | 1,198$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.95 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…60d5backed Pegula | 52c | 1,150$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Swiatek | 48c | 1,125$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pegula | 50c | 499.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.32 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Swiatek | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Pegula | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Swiatek | 50c | 205.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Swiatek | 50c | 201.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Pegula | 53c | 187.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Swiatek | 50c | 186.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Swiatek | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Swiatek | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Pegula | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Pegula | 51c | 58.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Swiatek | 49c | 52.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Pegula | 52c | 51.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Swiatek | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Pegula | 53c | 47.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Pegula | 53c | 46.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Pegula | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…b456backed Pegula | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pegula | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Pegula | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Pegula | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Pegula | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Swiatek | 49c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
- Pegula vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs SwiatekSwiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.