MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77fd1c6d460d79e8f3866853d60712b26bed84034f3338eccfa57a256ecd23f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 14,117$6,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,226.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Under | 44c | 8,836$3,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.31 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 7,163$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,646.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 3,919$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 3,526$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 2,616$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,227$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 2,008$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 1,650$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 1,323$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 506.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 3c | 500.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 56c | 435.9$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.43 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 420$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 30c | 289.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 52c | 272.58$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Over | 28c | 251.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 41c | 247.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 240$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 190.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 56c | 179.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 57c | 169.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…ed44backed Over | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 54c | 124.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Under | 45c | 98.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 56c | 72.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 33c | 65.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 57c | 64.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 61.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 48c | 49.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 44c | 46.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 45.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 56c | 40.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Over | 52c | 38.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 51c | 36.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 30.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 48c | 28.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 56c | 22.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…16cfbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.