TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Under49c14,117$6,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,226.054,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Under44c8,836$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,948.3123948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over51c7,163$3,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.868,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over52c3,919$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.116,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over56c3,526$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.494,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over43c2,616$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.039,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c2,227$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.5912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under44c2,008$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.335,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under52c1,650$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.5311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over53c1,323$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.362,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under44c999.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5606,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over20c506.07$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.734,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Over3c500.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7426063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over56c435.9$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4372655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under44c420$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over30c289.73$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.555,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Over52c272.58$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7421055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Over28c251.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.056344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over41c247.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.451,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under44c240$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.42,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba34…c745backed Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over31c190.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.695,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over56c179.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.881,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Over57c169.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5228456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ddb…ed44backed Over56c160.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…4883backed Under75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.336750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over54c124.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4950748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Over35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519335.8%69 W · 124 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620851.9%108 W · 100 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under45c98.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2713441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9a0…c52bbacked Over56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023145.5%105 W · 126 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed Under75c76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1912154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Under67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.633237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Over56c72.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5837551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over33c65.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Over57c64.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9644651.6%230 W · 216 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under51c61.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over48c49.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.811,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over29c49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under47c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.916,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under44c46.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1462554.2%339 W · 286 L+23.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under50c45.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.798,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf474…2775backed Over44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82524%6 W · 19 L-6.9wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-61.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Over52c44.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2331343.5%136 W · 177 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under44c43.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.492,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5965…d26dbacked Over56c40.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.716450.6%83 W · 81 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe350…e494backed Over52c38.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.963036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Over51c36.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8124243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece7…3353backed Under45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.336445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over56c30.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.872,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over48c28.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8883053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under45c26.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.443,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over56c22.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8459749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over55c20.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1171…16cfbacked Over55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.