MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135f35b5b7ae9fb73519b8a00762e18f0efda220ea14a1e13cd197a2f6ce8cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 9,699$6,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,321.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 6,058$2,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.02 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 5,536$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 5,014$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.6 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 3,167$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 2,053$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.88 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 1,576$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 1,222$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.2 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 1,043$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,006$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.83 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 840.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 799.79$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…0665backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 615.66$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 512.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 333.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 289.78$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 264$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 240.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 203.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 199.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 191.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 176.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 134.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 133.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 131.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 87.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51fdbacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 84.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 75.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 21c | 73.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 70.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 66.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 66.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 66.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 55.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 54.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…2573backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 49.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 48.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 46.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 38.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 31.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 27.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 48c | 27.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 27.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 22.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…a4e2backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.