Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x782aa1c5dd0774fd9bd4df3323c5d4daf2e041f5d8dd4db979d39a4b59468612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 20c | 6,767$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 3,656$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,420$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 7c | 2,415$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 14c | 1,201$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 756.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 727.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 557.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 77c | 482.2$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 5c | 430.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 11c | 429.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 8c | 356.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 8c | 318.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 12c | 254.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 219.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 7c | 190.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…047cbacked Yes | 10c | 186$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 170.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 164$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 18c | 150.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 78c | 132.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 8c | 129.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 11c | 126.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 119.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 10c | 104.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 95.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 90.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 67c | 86.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 81.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 20c | 61.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.