Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ae51921db0d0b3f18db0d92282d1bf7b528fd2bf922e37d0a454206ffc566a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed Yes | 0c | 11,845$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 5,725$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 3,928$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.46 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,981$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 24c | 1,754$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.95 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,658$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.37 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 1,436$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 27c | 1,358$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 1,288$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 17c | 1,264$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.37 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,248$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.15 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,056$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed No | 73c | 1,049$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 950.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 786.04$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 26c | 714.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 62c | 627.25$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.72 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 565.71$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 534.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 30c | 499.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 19c | 480.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 455.57$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 446$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 443$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 13c | 440.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2e…4bb4backed Yes | 71c | 422.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 413.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 31c | 402.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 383.05$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 381$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 370.22$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 41c | 369.49$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 351$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 347.59$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 347.55$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 37c | 347.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 6c | 344$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 330.44$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 318.72$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…cbc8backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 34c | 303.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d9…b329backed Yes | 9c | 299.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 34c | 285.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 267.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 15c | 253.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 249.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 30c | 238.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 212.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 199.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 198.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 189.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 68c | 188.25$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 181.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 180.27$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 177.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f2…a1cabacked Yes | 35c | 173.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 170.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 169$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 11c | 162.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 50c | 155.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 49c | 154.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…4076backed Yes | 33c | 151.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 13c | 150.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 143.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 141.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 136.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 31c | 129.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 37c | 127.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 35c | 126.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 126.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 16c | 121.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 43c | 119$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 29c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 37c | 109.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 106.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 102.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 16c | 101.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 98.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 36c | 98.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 14c | 95.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 39c | 94.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 48c | 93.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 54c | 93.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 92.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 90.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 36c | 88.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.