Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x675c1a0e31e4487de9afed4129977eac5cb97141518d9312c8e0db2470a29293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 42c | 5,852$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.82 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked No | 2c | 3,955$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 58c | 2,280$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 42c | 1,466$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.49 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 1,410$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 1,298$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 1,288$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 51c | 1,270$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.99 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 70c | 1,166$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.56 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,139$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.3 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 858$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 800.86$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 41c | 695.15$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.91 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 66c | 583.99$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 60c | 534.7$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.56 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…172abacked No | 41c | 534.31$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 534.31$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 503.86$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 496.97$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 48c | 483.11$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 469.41$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 444.24$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 437.82$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 435$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 6c | 419$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 45c | 413.4$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 413.25$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 383.05$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 377.77$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 54c | 368.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 365.78$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 77c | 314$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 8c | 303.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 291.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 35c | 289.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.49 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 287.87$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 67c | 278.63$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 7c | 248.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 241.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 43c | 234.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 232.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 229.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 206.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 205.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 203$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 201.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed No | 59c | 198.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 194.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 192.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 192.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 187.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…4076backed Yes | 46c | 179.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 174.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 168.21$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 168.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 23c | 163.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 30c | 163$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 51c | 157.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 153.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 150.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 56c | 150.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 59c | 141.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 37c | 137.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 68c | 132.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 129.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 47c | 126.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…b001backed Yes | 57c | 123.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 34c | 122.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 42c | 120.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 35c | 119.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 114.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 27c | 109.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 100.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 96.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 96.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…a0e4backed No | 62c | 88.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 85.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 38c | 83.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 31c | 80.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 46c | 79.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed No | 60c | 78.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 39c | 77.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 65.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 62.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.