Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449548272f5e819e648f8cd67a0a4e5cd3c134968c70e8d3759d32d87ed7b25b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 11c | 5,724$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.97 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 65c | 2,384$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.4 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,968$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 11c | 1,573$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.18 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 54c | 1,555$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.53 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 1,326$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 1,288$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 30c | 984.12$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.69 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 867.73$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 827.58$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 757.15$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 729.18$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 592.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 68c | 570.53$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 26c | 562.84$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 6c | 546.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 73c | 530.72$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 15c | 529.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 23c | 499.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 497.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 393.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 390.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 361.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 13c | 333.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 19c | 328.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 7c | 319.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 65c | 319.86$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 302.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 15c | 297$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 11c | 289.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 5c | 286.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 270.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 7c | 253.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 16c | 247.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 61c | 242.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 238.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 6c | 233$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 205.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 200.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…1df6backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 193.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 190.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 13c | 184.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 183.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 172.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 34c | 167.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 167.01$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 166.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 165.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 161.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed Yes | 57c | 129.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 128$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 30c | 124.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 62c | 121.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 8c | 120.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 117.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 117.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 115.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 109.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 11c | 108.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 57c | 108.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 28c | 108.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 102.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 19c | 98.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed No | 76c | 97.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 38c | 91.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 66c | 90.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…7151backed Yes | 14c | 83.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 81.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 71c | 74.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 40c | 72.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 71.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 28c | 69.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 73c | 68.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 24c | 66.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 64.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…afb4backed No | 66c | 55.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 52.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 48c | 52.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 28c | 42.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 40.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…b001backed Yes | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked No | 73c | 36.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 64c | 33.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.