Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x783e85b16dafd4346c1227fd33807883043e94303cb32a4cb3034e0946db6bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 59c | 651.28$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 33c | 310.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 249.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 172.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 47c | 150.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 67c | 137.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 115.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 103.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 98.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 60c | 83.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 60c | 77.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 74c | 69.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5601…1e1bbacked Yes | 52c | 58.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 56.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 66c | 56.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 53c | 56.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 58c | 50.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 47.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 46.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed Yes | 33c | 42.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bf5fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 40.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 46c | 40.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 44c | 38.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 55c | 34.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 33.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 51c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 66c | 27.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 26.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 41c | 26.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 25.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 25.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 43c | 23.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 65c | 16.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.