Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78cc767cfff01bde45d547ecd8700706c170545ee5c83dc2c29e08d495bbce2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 1,058$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.41 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 57c | 609.89$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.33 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 606.9$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.77 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 577.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 353.71$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 326.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 287.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 247.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 40c | 244$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 209.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 60c | 195.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 170.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 160.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 154.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 73c | 119.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 112.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 112.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…a97dbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 95.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 55c | 90.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 71c | 89.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 89.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…ef0abacked Yes | 30c | 84.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 73.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 63c | 72.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 58c | 68.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 68.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 61.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 57.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 34c | 55.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 51c | 51.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 50.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 49.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 43c | 42.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 33c | 40.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 38c | 38.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 29c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 74c | 33.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 33.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 32.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 32.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed Yes | 43c | 31.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…5e29backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 58c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.