Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x375b76a89fd4abe8f2d2939c1b5d154c05f731e84c787215958281bfc533adf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 55c | 764.05$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 40c | 454.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.12 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 453.43$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 433.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 49c | 328.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.36 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 249.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 232.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 177.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 166.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 160.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 149.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 146.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 146.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 59c | 139.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 129.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 128.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 44c | 127.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 127$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 80c | 117.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 116.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 109.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 104.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 42c | 96.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 48c | 87.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 59c | 85.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 62c | 78.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 51c | 78.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 43c | 75.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 75.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 72.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 72.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 71.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 70.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 51c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 57c | 51.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 46.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 64c | 46.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 42.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 42c | 38.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 58c | 34.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…7435backed No | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 31.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 35c | 30.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed Yes | 46c | 25.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 54c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…6a3dbacked Yes | 73c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.