Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7919c7c0d79a2e02131ca55187ac77f29c95b53730f5370b9ff3a939dfe967da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 348.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 31c | 308.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 32c | 246.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 227.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 221.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 216.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 24c | 206.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 34c | 156.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 149.69$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 137.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 114.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 112.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 100.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 96.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 27c | 92.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 91.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 75.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 22c | 72.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 55c | 70.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 24c | 63.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 63.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 62.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 62.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 60.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 21c | 57.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 58c | 50.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 52c | 44.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 60c | 44.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 44.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 40.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 40.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 50c | 39.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 38.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 76c | 38.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 42c | 35.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 46c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 24.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 68c | 19.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 16.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.