TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ilbirs eSportsof Team Jenz, Ilbirs eSports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47de…b677backed Ilbirs eSports66c9,041$5,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Jenz32c8,909$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.761,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf43f…6c9dbacked Ilbirs eSports65c5,122$3,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.381181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Jenz33c3,200$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.7926550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked Team Jenz1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1b…ca93backed Ilbirs eSports72c2,789$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.642161.9%13 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+40.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4fdc…9704backed Team Jenz34c2,649$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.612860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2b0…5e5ebacked Team Jenz1c2,600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked Ilbirs eSports75c2,366$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.213658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Jenz34c2,165$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.9432756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…e6a6backed Team Jenz1c2,150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed Team Jenz2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked Team Jenz13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606440.6%26 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Team Jenz32c1,799$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.764052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Ilbirs eSports56c1,777$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.422540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Ilbirs eSports68c1,477$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.772759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85a…960ebacked Team Jenz31c1,447$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9208…08c5backed Team Jenz28c1,218$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+68%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Ilbirs eSports57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.9928044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed Ilbirs eSports70c1,165$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.84858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked Team Jenz18c1,062$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.048444%37 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Team Jenz4c1,061$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.323323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…1861backed Team Jenz41c1,057$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.385131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ddc…c874backed Ilbirs eSports66c999.98$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Team Jenz14c965.82$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3619547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb11a…a5d9backed Team Jenz34c928.13$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.674551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Jenz21c874.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5832441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Jenz32c873.04$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.6954058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Jenz29c844.47$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1251049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed Team Jenz22c748.57$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2821047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Team Jenz33c728.8$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24012252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team Jenz27c724.34$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7631052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Ilbirs eSports79c695.6$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1343067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Jenz9c693.47$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0869132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Ilbirs eSports65c692.9$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5230452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team Jenz26c634.49$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9419251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Jenz19c600$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11732445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4e…852fbacked Ilbirs eSports69c599.98$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.994238.1%16 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+33.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed Ilbirs eSports69c578.72$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.431553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Team Jenz30c535.47$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6440644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed Team Jenz17c505.08$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8637253%197 W · 175 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Team Jenz42c475.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Jenz33c460.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Jenz26c458$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.564547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Jenz28c401.71$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.081,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Team Jenz35c397.71$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.491741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Team Jenz41c376.19$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15521447.2%101 W · 113 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Team Jenz23c347.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1218733.2%62 W · 125 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Jenz18c332.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Jenz22c325.66$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Team Jenz29c273.77$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5219135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Jenz15c236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Team Jenz37c204.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.26845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Team Jenz36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7126247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Ilbirs eSports68c199.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Jenz22c189.59$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.581,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Jenz25c153.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9542639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Ilbirs eSports63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team Jenz16c141.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3844049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Jenz21c137.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3153538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed Team Jenz31c135.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.668532.9%28 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x249a…f923backed Team Jenz35c135.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.052532%8 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabef…5c2ebacked Ilbirs eSports75c133.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.549344.1%41 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a2…646dbacked Ilbirs eSports76c129.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team Jenz19c127$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Team Jenz26c125.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5615648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Ilbirs eSports79c125.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7916256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Ilbirs eSports72c125.52$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7817537.1%65 W · 110 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Jenz24c118.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9158943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Team Jenz16c115.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed Team Jenz27c112.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023442.7%100 W · 134 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Team Jenz22c109.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Jenz25c109.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Jenz37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4061449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Team Jenz24c107.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.762321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Ilbirs eSports66c105.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.162245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Jenz34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3442146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d8…c931backed Team Jenz28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811946.2%55 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Ilbirs eSports79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2165863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a9…fc3fbacked Ilbirs eSports67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334325.6%11 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed Ilbirs eSports68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Ilbirs eSports69c98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7178516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Ilbirs eSports54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5933854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed Team Jenz30c86.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Jenz22c86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0956945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42db…3816backed Team Jenz19c77.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Jenz18c76.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8566947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Ilbirs eSports77c76.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4919440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Ilbirs eSports79c75.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8416553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c8…46eebacked Ilbirs eSports60c69.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Ilbirs eSports73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4959556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Jenz25c67.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2350032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Ilbirs eSports76c65.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.921764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Team Jenz26c63.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.523138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed Team Jenz21c63.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.294540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…570ebacked Ilbirs eSports71c63.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Team Jenz31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Jenz20c58.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7967555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a53…71a3backed Team Jenz34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018562.7%116 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Ilbirs eSports58c54.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.89683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+47.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.