TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ilbirs eSportsof Team Jenz, Ilbirs eSports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,904 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf43f…6c9dbacked Ilbirs eSports68c3,607$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.461181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Ilbirs eSports65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9730452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Team Jenz35c2,890$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Ilbirs eSports74c2,608$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.4948057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Ilbirs eSports68c1,456$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.5128044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Jenz31c1,243$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.2232756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Team Jenz23c1,240$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3418152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Team Jenz14c1,237$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.815747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d15…a2d0backed Ilbirs eSports69c1,210$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.094100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Jenz5c1,118$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked Team Jenz38c999.98$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.996440.6%26 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed Team Jenz35c860.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ddc…c874backed Ilbirs eSports61c837.18$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdc…9704backed Ilbirs eSports77c672.6$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.322860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Ilbirs eSports65c652.7$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Team Jenz34c637.23$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3310138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Team Jenz32c591.01$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5919547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Team Jenz34c552.36$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.484052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Ilbirs eSports73c551.87$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5419251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85a…960ebacked Team Jenz32c524.14$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Jenz25c520.4$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9189938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Team Jenz26c469$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.945940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked Team Jenz34c448.64$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.474156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Team Jenz16c430$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.919135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Jenz14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5632445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Jenz33c395.38$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7858943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Jenz37c389.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a99…91a9backed Ilbirs eSports74c380$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Jenz39c371.18$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed Ilbirs eSports62c350.98$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.374858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Ilbirs eSports65c345.9$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.782540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Jenz32c317.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7166947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked Ilbirs eSports73c300$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1b…ca93backed Team Jenz33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992161.9%13 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+40.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Team Jenz30c298.84$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7637754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed Team Jenz31c291.93$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.97735.1%27 W · 50 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Jenz24c281.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.881,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Jenz25c281.24$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.271,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Team Jenz34c267.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021447.2%101 W · 113 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Jenz9c266.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xcadf…b2e3backed Team Jenz4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Team Jenz28c228$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8415639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed Team Jenz9c227.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4621047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Ilbirs eSports74c224.42$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0312559.2%74 W · 51 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Jenz25c203.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Team Jenz35c203.29$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1517448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d1…afbfbacked Team Jenz5c203.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Jenz22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4443738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d34…e654backed Team Jenz39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+73.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Ilbirs eSports69c185$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1481345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed Team Jenz22c183.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.834540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed Ilbirs eSports68c179.55$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.661145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2965…89ebbacked Team Jenz30c172.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7110251%52 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Ilbirs eSports60c171.03$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.411369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46e4…c6dabacked Team Jenz13c169.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc057…0c9abacked Team Jenz30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked Ilbirs eSports62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292250%11 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Jenz40c155.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5332548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Ilbirs eSports69c144$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.645137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30d1…6ee7backed Ilbirs eSports68c143.76$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked Team Jenz24c141.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.453345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43a2…646dbacked Ilbirs eSports67c140$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a9…e7d8backed Team Jenz34c139.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.394738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Jenz31c133.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9842639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Jenz26c131.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.231,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Jenz31c129.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed Ilbirs eSports70c128.26$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2637253%197 W · 175 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff77…b6b4backed Team Jenz38c126.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Jenz25c122.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3653538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Team Jenz34c120.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.438759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Ilbirs eSports69c116.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.657343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Ilbirs eSports66c114.48$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4252046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Team Jenz35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4059556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Team Jenz39c106.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5515068%102 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x072e…df3abacked Team Jenz34c105.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.76933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Team Jenz25c102$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Ilbirs eSports68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3265863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Ilbirs eSports69c98.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1317537.1%65 W · 110 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed Team Jenz36c81.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2923442.7%100 W · 134 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Ilbirs eSports67c74.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.341764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4078…a7f7backed Ilbirs eSports59c70.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.944040%16 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Ilbirs eSports70c67.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2341632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Ilbirs eSports62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5228252.1%147 W · 135 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9f…1f47backed Team Jenz32c64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Ilbirs eSports66c61.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7719440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d33…6715backed Team Jenz35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9514543.4%63 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb140…ce3dbacked Ilbirs eSports70c56.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab20…d9e2backed Ilbirs eSports67c52.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.241546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x789a…3dfabacked Team Jenz29c51.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Ilbirs eSports63c47.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9121344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc622…affdbacked Ilbirs eSports60c45.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.146145.9%28 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde55…1d2abacked Ilbirs eSports67c44.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.777164.8%46 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Jenz34c43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7264547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Jenz35c42.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9391553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Ilbirs eSports73c38.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.494568.9%31 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Ilbirs eSports67c34.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4510833.3%36 W · 72 L-13.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Ilbirs eSports61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.797142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34c…ca55backed Ilbirs eSports68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed Ilbirs eSports69c21.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67742.9%33 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5d…ae81backed Ilbirs eSports79c18.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.