Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79da94c2dd452c16cd166d8ad04156417511694436bcac4a63a9cc62b56d2c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 63c | 1,500$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 19c | 1,206$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.05 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 733.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 488.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 62c | 454.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.25 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 16c | 409.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.47 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 402.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 17c | 367.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.51 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 361.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 311$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 253.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 249.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 242$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 229.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 207.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 53c | 206$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 8c | 198.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 187.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 175$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked No | 65c | 169.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 41c | 163.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 162.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 155.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 142.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 16c | 134.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 129.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 121.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 23c | 109.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 106.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 17c | 103.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 17c | 100.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 85.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 78.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 76.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 23c | 75.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 32c | 73.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 69.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 59.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 24c | 59.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 40c | 54.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 71c | 47.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 46c | 46.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 61c | 43.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 42.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 41.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 72c | 40.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 73c | 25.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 77c | 25.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 20.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 18.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.