Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0abf127fdf861c5fa71607c0dba1be5d8924de1d5046d1b80b92f07a2f3f1bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 2,150$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 59c | 891.41$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 561.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 25c | 498.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.61 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 496.73$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 38c | 468.31$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.48 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 419$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 30c | 408.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 368.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 49c | 361.26$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.29 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 37c | 358.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 272.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 38c | 271.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 261.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 246.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 246$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 44c | 226.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 65c | 199.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 66c | 191.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 32c | 177.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 30c | 175.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 175$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 170.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 167.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 161.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 35c | 140.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 130.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 38c | 120.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 120.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 117.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 53c | 113.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 71c | 111.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 68c | 109.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 106.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 105.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 103.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 101.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 20c | 99.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 65c | 91.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 55c | 86.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 54c | 83.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…a31bbacked No | 52c | 82.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 79.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Yes | 58c | 78.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 76.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 30c | 76.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 56c | 75.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 74.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 66c | 74.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 72.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 71.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 48c | 70.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 22c | 69.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 65c | 68.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 49c | 68.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 67c | 67.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 64.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 36c | 63.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 61.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 48c | 56.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 56.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 56.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 66c | 55.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 37c | 53.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 53.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 52.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 67c | 51.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 21c | 50.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…e2bcbacked Yes | 35c | 49.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 47.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 29c | 47.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 47c | 44.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 35c | 43.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 41.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…58b6backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 38.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.