Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08da5560c48c702e05cd5af941f49524b0a5beba420a88044094d4733a8eb0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 7,269$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.01 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 1,972$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,525$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,180$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 905.81$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 745$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 526.02$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 31c | 426.47$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 30c | 406.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 72c | 375.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 7c | 333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 324.43$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 277.36$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 273.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…afd2backed No | 71c | 261.83$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 29c | 239.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 234.46$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 233.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 215.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 212.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 211.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…67c6backed No | 71c | 210.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 206.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 15c | 201.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 187.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 37c | 162.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 19c | 150.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 147.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 147.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…e64bbacked Yes | 31c | 144.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…7381backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 137.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 34c | 136.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 129.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 123.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 33c | 115.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 67c | 111.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 108$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 37c | 106.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe387…1eedbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 98.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 94.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 90.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 79.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 76.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 75.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…df53backed Yes | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 71.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 22c | 67.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 67.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 63.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 62.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 30c | 59.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Yes | 21c | 58.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed Yes | 33c | 58.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 26c | 56.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 56.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 52.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 37c | 52.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 29c | 51.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 47.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 44.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 44.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 77c | 42.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…58b6backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 32c | 38.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…f874backed Yes | 37c | 37.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.