World Politics · resolved market
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by less than 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dc68ee63f01f25e7ea15aa487a20d76b412d22bc62c70733afe3a8a7241e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2388…5653backed Yes | 44c | 686.46$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 261.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 55c | 210.84$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 139.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Yes | 74c | 139.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 42c | 90.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 81.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 44c | 70.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…6358backed Yes | 47c | 61.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 58.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 56.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 31.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 57c | 30.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…5af9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…1498backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by less than 10%?this page
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10% and 20%?No won
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 20% and 30%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.