World Politics · resolved market
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10% and 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f2eab56136b73501dab8d50177642473ff11dfcf3a3e088a83b004dba06b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 45c | 460.76$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 53c | 389.35$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.83 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 50c | 351.74$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 54c | 329.08$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…3179backed Yes | 54c | 302$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 37c | 300.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 261.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 55c | 214.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611d…af1bbacked Yes | 55c | 186.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfc…e436backed No | 64c | 155.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +901.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 37c | 149.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 45c | 80.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 78.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 58.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 58.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…8716backed Yes | 52c | 58.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 56.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 51c | 50.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…d223backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…6358backed Yes | 45c | 44.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 78c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 46c | 23.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…28f5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…69a2backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…2a23backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…1498backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…3a1fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Yes | 54c | 19.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10% and 20%?this page
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 20% and 30%?No won
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by less than 10%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.