Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a05e3be734e7e1c63756d12febc0dbe9761a811c6eeb4582b7b6d40bbf127f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 666.53$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 229.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked No | 75c | 175.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 169.84$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 26c | 156.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 80c | 134.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 28c | 130.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +9.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 20c | 112.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 109.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 25c | 103.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 96.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 76c | 83.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 83.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 78c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 26c | 74.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 74c | 66.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 22c | 66.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…db1fbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 53.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 26c | 41.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 41.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 74c | 32.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 28.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 78c | 28.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 28.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 74c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 23.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 74c | 22.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No | 78c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.