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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No18c474.35$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.432,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c424.69$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.971,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes62c302.85$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2757827.9%161 W · 417 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c295.03$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes49c240$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9992329.1%269 W · 654 L+0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No19c215.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.271,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbc1c…545abacked Yes61c202.72$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.897656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+36.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No77c190.07$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5926061.5%160 W · 100 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed No51c185.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5114240.1%57 W · 85 L-11.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No36c178.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.681,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No30c154.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.933,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No40c149.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0388124.1%212 W · 669 L-40.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No63c146.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0522160.6%134 W · 87 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c142.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.572,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c135.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.096,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes36c134.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3948446.1%223 W · 261 L+45.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed No11c134.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf12…12e7backed Yes78c131.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No17c128.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6840142.4%170 W · 231 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes75c118.17$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2730032%96 W · 204 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes78c117.04$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9426466.7%176 W · 88 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No52c115.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013947.5%66 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf928…2da3backed Yes67c114.18$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.181450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes72c101.92$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2510647.2%50 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes59c100.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8238131%118 W · 263 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018829.8%56 W · 132 L-12.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No16c98.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.322,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes50c97.32$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9720851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No51c95.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.461,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c90.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes46c87.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9512039.2%47 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c83.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.079,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c78.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.444,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes53c75.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.146842.6%29 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes51c70.17$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.195,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes35c67.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.231,18938.2%454 W · 735 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No60c66.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9841651.9%216 W · 200 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No36c65.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.572,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes61c65.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3317338.2%66 W · 107 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No40c65.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.061,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes76c62.28$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6747436.7%174 W · 300 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d4…9705backed Yes67c60.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.041758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No41c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes56c58.72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8711462.3%71 W · 43 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes66c56.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2118157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No42c56.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7163460.3%382 W · 252 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.54,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes49c55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.052,24049.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L-9.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes38c52.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2520255.4%112 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed No62c48.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3810730.8%33 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No21c48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1650661.3%310 W · 196 L+42.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes35c48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.255238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc60…ce27backed No25c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c47.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.855,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No57c41.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9427565.5%180 W · 95 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No37c40.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2816436%59 W · 105 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdb…b241backed Yes44c40.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.415064%32 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.538346.7%179 W · 204 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.298651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.617058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No59c39.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.613351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c36.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0710,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd969…0932backed Yes45c35.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.464436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No66c32.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4834667.6%234 W · 112 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes35c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No52c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6426267.6%177 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x278b…b63abacked Yes35c30.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.722560%15 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c30.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.647,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed No65c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.523554%127 W · 108 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No53c29.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.614949%24 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No68c28.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.927150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29bf…86f1backed Yes71c27.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.02875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb3…f51fbacked Yes68c25.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159055.6%50 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No49c23.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3741274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes47c22.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.772,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3964…14f0backed Yes72c21.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f28…b6bbbacked No57c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes71c20.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0143947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No51c19.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22,18959.7%1,306 W · 883 L+26.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes69c15.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8523066.5%153 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6053…6af8backed Yes79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.15988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9877…61b5backed Yes79c13.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.74757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.