Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488cfdb4000f2321ab82b0169abef537032245c10a1f10e34f72b481be499820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 474.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 424.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 62c | 302.85$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 295.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 215.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 61c | 202.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 77c | 190.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 51c | 185.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 178.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 30c | 154.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 40c | 149.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 63c | 146.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 142.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 135.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 36c | 134.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 11c | 134.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 78c | 131.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 128.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 75c | 118.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 78c | 117.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 52c | 115.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…2da3backed Yes | 67c | 114.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 72c | 101.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 59c | 100.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 98.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 50c | 97.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 95.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 90.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 46c | 87.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 83.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 78.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 53c | 75.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 70.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 67.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 60c | 66.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 65.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 61c | 65.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 40c | 65.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 76c | 62.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 67c | 60.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 56c | 58.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 66c | 56.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 42c | 56.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 38c | 52.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 62c | 48.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 47.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 57c | 41.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 37c | 40.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 44c | 40.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 36.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 45c | 35.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 32.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 35c | 30.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 30.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 53c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No | 68c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…86f1backed Yes | 71c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…f51fbacked Yes | 68c | 25.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 49c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 22.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…14f0backed Yes | 72c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…b6bbbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 71c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 69c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…6af8backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…61b5backed Yes | 79c | 13.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.