Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c00f6c71bc0cdc2ca8d197ec8230a4681075ea37687fb70389bf338b1fe5255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 26c | 967.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 217 | 36.4%79 W · 138 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 74c | 526.11$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 6c | 349.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 19c | 255.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 53c | 209.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 16c | 186.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 161$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 160.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 77c | 153.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 149.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 141.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 139.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 138.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…df8dbacked Yes | 35c | 117.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 58c | 114.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 37c | 109.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 96.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 91.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 90.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 81.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…3e75backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 77.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 66.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 64.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 73c | 64.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 56.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 55.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 53.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 48.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 44c | 44.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 43.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 46c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 32.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 32.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 41c | 29.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 70c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 75c | 27.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 51c | 21.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 64c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked No | 72c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +9.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.