Earnings · resolved market
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a2bde1f360189caa1ea1f199ffad7be798f335c9dfbe7b9d2bc65b8a126b6d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 69c | 522.91$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 59c | 522.86$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.56 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 268.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 78c | 188.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed No | 36c | 126.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…e3c8backed No | 42c | 100.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 42c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 20c | 66.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 36c | 59.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 41c | 56.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 79c | 49.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 43c | 47.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 46.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…504ebacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 35.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6346…7c71backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…51d5backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…7c50backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.