Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a49c75f78582605dbac5228ba430721ba6b9475334508db38c616158d536474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Alvercaof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, FC Alverca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Alverca | 72c | 7,359$5,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.8 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 18c | 4,570$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.25 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 34c | 603.88$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.26 | 103 | 23.3%24 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 507.94$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 59c | 430$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.7 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Alverca | 37c | 284$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 2,316 | 42.8%991 W · 1,325 L | -41.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 24cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 37c | 235.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 43c | 215$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 45c | 205.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 62c | 202.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 241 | 30.3%73 W · 168 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 10c | 150.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 47c | 96.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 50c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked FC Alverca | 38c | 55.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 38c | 48.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 25c | 41.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed FC Alverca | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 669 | 41.4%277 W · 392 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…5325backed FC Alverca | 38c | 38.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Alverca | 37c | 37.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,366 | 46.8%1,108 W · 1,258 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…e80bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed FC Alverca | 66c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 25.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,607 | 52.1%1,358 W · 1,249 L | +9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed FC Alverca | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…bb7abacked FC Alverca | 80c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…d6a6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…e531backed FC Alverca | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.