TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x441a…e9c7backed No67c3,308$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.0939543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes31c1,619$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes31c1,167$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36215527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c520.46$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c414.76$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.682,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No68c406.85$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.834,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c349.65$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c339$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.695,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes26c333.78$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes32c320$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.813637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes34c299$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes17c284.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487051.4%36 W · 34 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes31c258.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c246$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.275,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c220$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No56c209.83$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.353,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c192$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.874,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes22c182.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406045%27 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c154$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.594,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c136.53$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.962,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c135.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.131,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes15c132.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.036835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c127.17$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.751,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c122.7$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.624,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c120.07$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.554,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c120$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.33,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes23c118.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.23,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8808…d288backed Yes37c117.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.381540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No69c117.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9576059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes32c114.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8154735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c105.48$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.572,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c105.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No55c103.36$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.442,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes26c102.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6910455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No54c100.67$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.552,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4477555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No65c86.94$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c86.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No62c86.62$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.82,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf3b…880abacked Yes31c80.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c79.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.213,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes34c79.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.861,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked No66c77.33$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.299458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes46c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9657747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.11,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c64.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.574,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.474,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No64c60.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8271057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c60.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes37c53.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes37c52.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No62c49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4935063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718b…1bf2backed Yes36c47.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.132360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes36c45.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.459538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes46c43.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No59c42.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes35c40.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1954335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No59c39.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2215749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce5…6233backed No73c38.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3913559.3%80 W · 55 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No65c37.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.042,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes37c36.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes38c36.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.871,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes34c36.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No59c35.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6248523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes30c33.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1811525.2%29 W · 86 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No60c33.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4231866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x104d…5abbbacked Yes42c32.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.743336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c30.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.433,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No69c30.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.427552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.67749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes37c28.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.619048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes42c26.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9425261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No80c25.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.241,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No71c23.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8751156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No66c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7625560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No76c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c21.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.73,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No55c21.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.742,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No62c20.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7821272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No69c19.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.922,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No76c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.083,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c15.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6549359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.999573.7%70 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.