Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a936934ecca9e5e570813752b80c981fdea95270aba809fd3c5087f638465f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 67c | 3,308$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.09 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 1,619$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 31c | 1,167$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 520.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 414.76$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 406.85$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 349.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 339$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 333.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 32c | 320$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 299$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 17c | 284.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 246$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 220$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 209.83$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 192$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 22c | 182.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 154$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 136.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 15c | 132.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 127.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 122.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 120.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 118.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 37c | 117.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 117.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 114.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 105.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 105.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 103.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 26c | 102.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 100.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 86.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 86.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 86.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 79.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 79.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 66c | 77.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 64.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 60.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 60.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 53.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 36c | 47.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 36c | 45.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 46c | 43.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 59c | 42.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 40.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 59c | 39.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 38.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 36.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 38c | 36.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 36.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 59c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 30c | 33.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 42c | 32.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 69c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 37c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 42c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 80c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 62c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.