Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac9a0da7bbda5649c962c7d6628bcf6feb24bd3ce017bf9190b9049170febcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 2,159$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.2 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 56c | 1,037$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.59 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 740.22$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 610.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 603.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 580.76$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 506.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 54c | 451.7$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 49c | 395.29$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.71 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 376.27$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 290.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 257.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 242$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 32c | 179.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 175.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 172$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 165.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 164.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 161.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 131.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 121.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 14c | 118.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 43c | 114.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 111.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 110.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 55c | 90.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 87.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 86.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 79.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 39c | 78.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 47c | 77.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 48c | 75.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 72.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 45c | 71.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 64.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 60.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 58.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 55.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 58c | 54.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 41c | 53.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 52.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 52.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 48c | 45.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 44.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 42.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 39.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 45c | 36.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 43c | 35.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 35.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 61c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 70c | 35.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 48c | 33.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…1baabacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 57c | 32.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 61c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 32.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 54c | 32.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 47c | 31.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…0d58backed Yes | 46c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…2a53backed Yes | 50c | 28.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 27.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 26.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 42c | 26.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 57c | 19.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 60c | 19.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.