TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof FC Bayern München, BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c3,863$3,086 inWon+$777.453,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München8c1,742$139 inLost-$139.262,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed FC Bayern München20c1,248$251 inLost-$250.565928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund24c1,234$296 inWon+$937.841060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed FC Bayern München76c1,234$938 inLost-$937.843129%9 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked FC Bayern München20c1,000$200 inLost-$2008124.7%20 W · 61 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed FC Bayern München20c500$100 inLost-$1004032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München20c350$70 inLost-$704452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Bayern München21c300$63 inLost-$6333340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed FC Bayern München14c250$35 inLost-$35922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked FC Bayern München20c250$50 inLost-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed FC Bayern München21c200$42 inLost-$424037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund79c100$79 inWon+$216861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a0…da0dbacked FC Bayern München21c95.24$20 inLost-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a3…2784backed FC Bayern München21c90.71$19 inLost-$19.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…ee4dbacked FC Bayern München26c76.37$20 inLost-$201030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München20c71.12$14 inLost-$13.9728822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed FC Bayern München21c50$11 inLost-$10.73215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund76c38$29 inWon+$9.121764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c30$24 inWon+$68067.5%54 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7721…e537backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund71c20.24$14 inWon+$5.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund79c12.78$10 inWon+$2.6811281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.