TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,097 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under26c21,048$5,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,431.293,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under23c7,898$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.472,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Over73c4,110$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.71770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Over66c3,808$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over63c3,193$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under27c2,924$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.171,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac86…b3b3backed Over77c2,596$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.434100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+77.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over77c1,841$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.134671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over73c1,805$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.2938748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under31c1,255$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.831,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over61c1,159$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.018068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Under38c1,125$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Over65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under37c867.76$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9e…db57backed Over64c841.72$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Over73c820.93$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+136.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under31c771.31$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.631,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under39c745.87$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9318759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under30c678.34$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dcd…0c46backed Over79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under27c628.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under28c600$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16815742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99cd…36cfbacked Over78c547.44$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under28c535.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over67c507.46$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4612951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb31…3bf2backed Over73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over74c500$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over62c413.07$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.085928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.962560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under27c402.03$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1729062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over64c390.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6310863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under27c378$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b0…1846backed Over72c347.22$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.222487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under38c331.05$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.82548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Over64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under18c278.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Under36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under27c262.62$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9073…d129backed Under37c262.16$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over72c250$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Over72c249.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706583.1%54 W · 11 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49a1…41cbbacked Over68c234.46$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.03580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under26c218.92$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9248146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5411644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa14…e53bbacked Over79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5817055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6548…cfa1backed Over78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3112069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under37c170$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.93345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Over74c168.92$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.923351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f4…5107backed Over73c168.08$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.381471.4%10 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2917855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Under27c151.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.646043.3%26 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Over67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Over66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4f…75f2backed Over73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e28…e5efbacked Over74c130$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed Over73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Under28c124.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.766256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under26c122.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9163645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over73c120.6$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.564269%29 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa50…27d6backed Under38c116.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6779…eed9backed Over65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Under38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+108.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.510864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3638845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Over75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Under30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4334655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Under22c90.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.722839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68d…8874backed Over80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over62c88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.045466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05bb…1879backed Over72c87.14$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over58c86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over71c84.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.258056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Over64c78.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.231464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under34c69.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6630647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.444269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed Over73c64.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Over77c61.62$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.171861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under22c56.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5620153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f5…3047backed Over73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.798863.6%56 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0513066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over63c53.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.871353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over67c51.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.28665.1%56 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed37…5748backed Over66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under26c48.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.699838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b2c…754dbacked Over72c48.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2600…f0dcbacked Over71c46.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x722a…d6edbacked Over79c46.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.714100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under29c46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3481732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under33c42.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Under26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46331.7%20 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5617…38fcbacked Over61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Over79c38.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under29c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.737332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.