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Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof FC Bayern München, BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198f…c419backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c22,795$14,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,434.118448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c10,734$6,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,954.210553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked FC Bayern München37c10,691$3,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,950.8517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed FC Bayern München37c10,194$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,775.652850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c7,962$5,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.746058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed FC Bayern München36c5,555$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.777254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed FC Bayern München35c2,270$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c1,800$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64813461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München36c1,442$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.643,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c1,428$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.6535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…0beebacked FC Bayern München10c1,040$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed FC Bayern München37c938.92$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.43363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed FC Bayern München38c800$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked FC Bayern München36c787.37$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.798124.7%20 W · 61 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed FC Bayern München37c621.62$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed FC Bayern München38c602.92$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1110728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c504$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4410154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked FC Bayern München36c397.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2810642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed FC Bayern München36c366.13$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.818143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd3…f794backed FC Bayern München35c324.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Bayern München27c316.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.491,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9759…cb52backed FC Bayern München37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund62c233.87$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.879252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56f4…7655backed FC Bayern München38c228.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29ae…eda1backed FC Bayern München10c220$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb360…13abbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c215.45$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick54cpaid+93%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed FC Bayern München20c208.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.83743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7217055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed FC Bayern München36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed FC Bayern München37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x405f…5852backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c183.62$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa34…523abacked FC Bayern München38c170.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FC Bayern München38c154$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed FC Bayern München36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed FC Bayern München36c148.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9820753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked FC Bayern München15c146.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked FC Bayern München36c138.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked FC Bayern München38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed FC Bayern München32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund76c125$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked FC Bayern München33c122.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1811843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked FC Bayern München37c121.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed FC Bayern München16c112.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0581732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…5d05backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c111.13$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed FC Bayern München10c106.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.535928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked FC Bayern München38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed FC Bayern München37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc4…c8e5backed FC Bayern München11c96.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund65c92.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.676659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ea…706cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund67c71.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb672…456fbacked FC Bayern München37c71.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29c…64d6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund65c68.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c55.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.319658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1479…b778backed FC Bayern München36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München29c54.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7528822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc21d…727ebacked FC Bayern München37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb3…9858backed FC Bayern München38c53.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed FC Bayern München38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed FC Bayern München39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3323…f667backed FC Bayern München38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192055%11 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FC Bayern München34c49.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0422221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb152…ef4cbacked FC Bayern München36c48.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC Bayern München35c42.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9434144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…2e2abacked FC Bayern München37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed FC Bayern München37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund62c40.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.223560%21 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb77e…95bcbacked FC Bayern München37c39.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a50…09f4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee0…bcc8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x010b…b668backed FC Bayern München38c33.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.782045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed FC Bayern München36c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.522951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca8…d137backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27a…5026backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c30.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund73c30.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+62.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed FC Bayern München37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.18067.5%54 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked FC Bayern München36c29.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.797955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked FC Bayern München37c29.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.935054%27 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund73c29.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.933154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c27.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1812157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca3…483abacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund63c24.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.245100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+87.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.082050%10 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c20.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.231,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa922…1d20backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c17.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c16.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0912064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund65c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.471758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1093…d547backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.