TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over21c17,427$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,700.113,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Under79c10,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9001258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Under65c3,271$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over43c2,320$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.391540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf425…be71backed Over23c2,304$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.72356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Under70c1,178$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8251225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Under70c1,178$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8251844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over43c1,170$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.281163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over27c894.31$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.015928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Under69c849.64$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over24c786.23$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.721,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Under61c782.05$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.781957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1104…39fabacked Under73c767.25$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over31c715.32$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.573823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over26c610.37$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.2944655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under76c606$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.9249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Under68c588.24$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed Under2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over32c498.42$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9349647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed Over51c496.17$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.172231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under11c485$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.357550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over31c480.65$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.655246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under60c329.79$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.172,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over39c313.15$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.154671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2075742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over30c288.27$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7981732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over32c279.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19033340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over32c250$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17048146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.911857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Over17c240$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5471…d0fabacked Under12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Over18c191.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.691861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3422…cd99backed Under70c169.42$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over30c164.4$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.0834144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43bc…d3ddbacked Under63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over31c154.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.843339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Over29c136.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa151…d8d0backed Under70c128.57$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Under78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006063.3%38 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd92a…8936backed Under13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2819055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c77…8f06backed Under70c107.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Under70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Over31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+130.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fc…f4b0backed Over18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+309.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2a9…6afabacked Over30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+98.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Under70c95.71$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2b…1477backed Under70c94.33$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under69c92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.469742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da0…3ed5backed Under78c89.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x043c…595fbacked Under70c87.73$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e8d…58e3backed Under70c85.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over30c84.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over31c83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.277332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over31c81.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.246955.1%38 W · 31 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over32c78.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1311635.3%41 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…c8cebacked Under80c75.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over38c73.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1813957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8fc…ad4bbacked Under70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick76cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x762d…872abacked Under70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d2…2421backed Under70c71.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over36c71.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5725659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ce…ea8dbacked Under70c70.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick63cpaid-78.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.12634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over32c69.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2711955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f33…0d47backed Over29c65.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.331978.9%15 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.33per pick46cpaid+74.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5214758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Under70c64.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.612162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over30c54.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3822221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over34c53.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.317962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over21c49.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.996659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed Over43c46.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+169.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over33c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.79659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over44c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.765354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Under70c45.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x529c…1809backed Over27c41.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Over30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.64841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over32c38.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2663645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed Under70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x281a…7c48backed Under70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2501…d795backed Under70c32.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a4…d230backed Under61c31.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under69c29.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.698067.5%54 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under63c25.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.689052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under68c25.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under63c23.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.661,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x010b…b668backed Under72c21.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed Under70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under56c21.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101a…a4d2backed Under78c18.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb713…f288backed Under70c17.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Under78c16.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.182839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.