NFL · resolved market
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abcd5c6cd3ffeedf29a74ca504a248a861a7aa9df1bf57718258775615c9e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 17c | 10,774$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.99 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed Yes | 63c | 9,994$6,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…399bbacked Yes | 19c | 7,500$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.95 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 63c | 3,632$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.03 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,497$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 37c | 2,857$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.94 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 53c | 2,072$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.65 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 6c | 1,676$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,261$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.28 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 36c | 1,134$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.59 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 61c | 1,068$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.44 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,063$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 44c | 1,004$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…bad3backed No | 43c | 990.15$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 36c | 886$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 60c | 822.17$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.27 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed Yes | 46c | 700.01$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed No | 42c | 624.62$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.7 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 620.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…9511backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 65c | 580$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 50c | 494.72$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…6fe7backed No | 54c | 360$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 41c | 360$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 348$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Yes | 45c | 298.89$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 222$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked No | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 51c | 200.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 45c | 198.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 184.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked No | 37c | 168$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…84fbbacked Yes | 49c | 122.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked No | 36c | 105$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…4e37backed No | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 48c | 104.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 209 | 50.7%106 W · 103 L | -15.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…2db4backed Yes | 54c | 97.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…53bbbacked No | 46c | 97.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…354bbacked Yes | 64c | 84.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…1a07backed Yes | 23c | 78.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…0ae6backed Yes | 47c | 63.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 74.4%61 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Yes | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a3…0696backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…11babacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…7025backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…fdf4backed Yes | 63c | 17.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…9a8bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…0d6fbacked No | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC WestNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.