NFL · resolved market
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0421f6e80f8067bda0a9aa06954b025f24cfc8a6c98a966a98c35ea0e1ea2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 11c | 5,150$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.5 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 14c | 3,746$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.95 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…8a79backed Yes | 18c | 3,736$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.69 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 30c | 3,423$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.05 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 20c | 3,080$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.11 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 47c | 2,904$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.7 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 7c | 2,537$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.74 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 11c | 1,655$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 6c | 1,486$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 1,429$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 36c | 1,357$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.47 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 62c | 968.03$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.05 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 5c | 881$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0274…307bbacked Yes | 20c | 788.66$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 15c | 689.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 18c | 536.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Yes | 37c | 398$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 54c | 326.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.01 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 313$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…fe54backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Yes | 4c | 274.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…455fbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 19c | 218.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 9c | 161.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 20c | 159.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 36c | 150.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 143.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 12c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…3393backed Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…d34abacked Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…2dcebacked Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…70f7backed Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…291dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…7e26backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…778ebacked No | 72c | 97.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…5f00backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…396fbacked Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…641abacked Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f0…6af7backed Yes | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 43c | 56.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 43c | 33.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…0e9cbacked No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d69…cf4abacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…321ebacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 41c | 30.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…1e70backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…7576backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…7c4bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West?this page
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West?Yes won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC WestNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.