Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7acd2cf50ad9d8747914055a6b460cb103bf2da60d9c17786a7949e6256ccfb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 946.49$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 2c | 906.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 816.1$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.82 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 729.75$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.97 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 530$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.25 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 324.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 304.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 23c | 298.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 74c | 261.83$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 261.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 223$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 47c | 200.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 37c | 195.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 31c | 159.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 149$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Yes | 61c | 148.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 144.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 129.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 124$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 119.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 43c | 113.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 106.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 101.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 68c | 86.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 86.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 68.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 61.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 58.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 56.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d45…4b99backed Yes | 42c | 55.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 54.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 51.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 50c | 51.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 50.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 36c | 50.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 38c | 48.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…f081backed Yes | 39c | 46.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 64c | 43.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 42.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 37.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 32.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 44c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 50c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked Yes | 42c | 30.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 65c | 29.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 63c | 28.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 26.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 26.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 66c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 68c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 64c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.