Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ace2cbeb7d9dae43a307109d41c9615d7aa040f1c75f1d6412f19563758a7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 3,629$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 1c | 1,795$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 2c | 1,028$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 42c | 686.26$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 542.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 61c | 358.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 63c | 299.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…5351backed Yes | 68c | 293.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 37c | 276.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 218.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 199.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 16c | 184.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 50c | 175$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 39c | 159.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 65c | 150.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 60c | 138.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 69c | 138$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 33c | 136.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 59c | 134$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 66c | 100.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 72c | 99.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed Yes | 72c | 99.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 68c | 98.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 74c | 95.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 37c | 94.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 70c | 92.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 52c | 92.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 88.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 65c | 76.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 30c | 68.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 51c | 56.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 51.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923e…2ab6backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 60c | 49.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 55c | 49.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…7a88backed Yes | 66c | 48.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 42.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 51c | 41.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 50c | 40.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…6c64backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…5246backed Yes | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…730bbacked Yes | 64c | 22.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…7289backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c84…787dbacked Yes | 77c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or higher on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 35-36°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.