Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fbae2e6e95c0102d7bf4a6d2643e278499d8990c8c38e4369819b27caed2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 3,273$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 1,406$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 22c | 813.79$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.65 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed No | 78c | 770.77$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9baabacked Yes | 19c | 709.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 2c | 650$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 9c | 617.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 10c | 550.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 28c | 539.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 461.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 17c | 460.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 75c | 372.24$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 11c | 355.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 77c | 347.54$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 20c | 340$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…e1bdbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…719cbacked Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 191.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 188.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed Yes | 26c | 180.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 161.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 158$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked No | 80c | 118.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 75c | 111.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 63c | 110.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 26c | 88.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 20c | 85.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 83.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 83.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 81.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 81.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…ba00backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 18c | 70.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 68.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 78c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 26c | 57.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 24c | 54.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…3740backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…0bcabacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…ee8bbacked No | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 79c | 34.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 65c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 72c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or higher on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 35-36°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.