Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ad998cc59f1cf1cb435d46e4e4ab57d24505d7f377d1bbd1232e081065862d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 553.9$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 540.81$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 411.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 332.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 321$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 4c | 308.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 37c | 208.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 37c | 201.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 13c | 184.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 173.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 170.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 149.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 139.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 137.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 129.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 19c | 123.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 122.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 113$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 110.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 36c | 104.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 50c | 99.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 54c | 99.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 89.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 80.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 65c | 79.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 76.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 76.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 74.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 38c | 74.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 46c | 67.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 63.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 64c | 52.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 49.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 39.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 39.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 36.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 35.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 53c | 34.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 33.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 60c | 30.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 64c | 28.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 51c | 24.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 62c | 24.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 63c | 18.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 17.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.