MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aea14374da33ca88d09e7576d9aadba45ed2015b7a2d129033576dcf32edd8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 62c | 40,028$24,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,662.76 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Over | 44c | 6,561$2,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,674.16 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 5,888$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.35 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 4,491$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,919.19 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over | 35c | 2,681$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.37 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 44c | 2,239$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 35c | 1,478$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.6 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 35c | 1,228$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.16 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 35c | 1,205$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.49 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 35c | 1,180$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 35c | 1,140$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 1,138$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.7 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 35c | 700$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 681$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 35c | 564.29$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.79 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 35c | 469.77$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.35 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 35c | 450$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 446$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 50c | 440.33$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.36 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 35c | 385$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 199$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 35c | 197.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 35c | 196.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 35c | 187.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 35c | 133$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 114.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 35c | 97.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 35c | 94.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 51c | 86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 35c | 56.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 35c | 54.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 51c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over | 49c | 26.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-5.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.