Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b4021db1a35b8d84c3f56054a170c791287823d8fc0afe7c4f260bc0293bf80

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 3, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,423
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,423 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa19a…2f33backed No	59c	2,500$1,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,475	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4af1…ef00backed Yes	41c	2,500$1,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,475	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed No	59c	2,336$1,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,375.3	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-6.5wins	-0.12per pick	63cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes	41c	2,007$830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,176.89	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No	59c	1,873$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.55	680	26.3%179 W · 501 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No	7c	1,436$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.01	378	41.8%158 W · 220 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Yes	39c	1,142$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$696.62	69	59.4%41 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed No	39c	1,069$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.94	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No	58c	1,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked No	60c	999.99$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.99	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes	40c	999.98$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.99	292	38.4%112 W · 180 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No	58c	999.97$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.98	346	43.9%152 W · 194 L	-14.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked No	61c	827.93$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.04	92	38%35 W · 57 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes	41c	734.29$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.23	402	54.7%220 W · 182 L	+14.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes	72c	659.99$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.1	116	57.8%67 W · 49 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52aa…e5dabacked Yes	40c	557.3$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.18	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e44…79c9backed No	59c	534.68$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.46	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	38cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes	40c	506.75$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.87	296	43.6%129 W · 167 L	-11.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7600…49e5backed Yes	40c	500$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	99	49.5%49 W · 50 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes	36c	454$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.93	697	72.6%506 W · 191 L	+83.8wins	+0.12per pick	61cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x05ad…72d7backed No	58c	400$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.98	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No	59c	399.99$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237	907	51.3%465 W · 442 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e09…3cb2backed No	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No	60c	256.79$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.79	342	51.8%177 W · 165 L	+21.9wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed No	59c	250$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.5	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83da…41f7backed Yes	42c	216.48$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.56	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…96b7backed No	60c	211.5$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.9	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No	58c	201.67$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.97	49	63.3%31 W · 18 L	+6.6wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+26%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3bc…8c15backed Yes	41c	200$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+30%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes	38c	184.21$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.21	253	39.1%99 W · 154 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	41c	182.93$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.93	113	42.5%48 W · 65 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710c…ee60backed No	58c	150$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-5.9wins	-0.28per pick	57cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes	43c	116.28$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.28	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbda7…fc55backed Yes	74c	106.5$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.41	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.25per pick	60cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	427	55%235 W · 192 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6753…7340backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf17f…43e5backed Yes	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c0dbacked No	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes	37c	100$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.5	155	54.8%85 W · 70 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No	57c	99.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7900…c1e9backed No	61c	91.31$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	60cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c33…1b14backed Yes	40c	91.28$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.77	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ed…d3aebacked Yes	44c	81.57$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe227…55d8backed No	64c	78.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1b…5adbbacked No	61c	70$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	97	47.4%46 W · 51 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f2…fdbabacked Yes	78c	65$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+26%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Yes	37c	64.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.9	401	35.2%141 W · 260 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed No	58c	56.78$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-8.9wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd4b9…93f9backed Yes	40c	55$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+89.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe467…2f53backed No	61c	55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+27%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed Yes	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+6.4wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes	42c	49.69$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-5.6wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed No	57c	46.51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	59	59.3%35 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf6ef…e2c9backed Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No	57c	45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b4…5aabbacked No	60c	42.23$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	58cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a14…dfb7backed Yes	42c	40.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.78	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2bb…b914backed No	58c	40.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa715…15e2backed Yes	42c	38.61$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.39	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbce…98cbbacked Yes	41c	37.6$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.18	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fc…5ddfbacked No	59c	35.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1413…4bddbacked No	62c	35.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	200	59.5%119 W · 81 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1958…a85cbacked Yes	44c	33.29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.52	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8140…b92fbacked Yes	45c	33.09$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.09	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5d…3553backed No	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-4.5wins	-0.45per pick	55cpaid	-80%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7a51…6eb2backed No	58c	31.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.51	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	48cpaid	+48.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9748…b6a2backed No	60c	30.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes	41c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.7	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e9…deecbacked Yes	42c	28.33$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.43	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bdd…0d84backed Yes	42c	27.32$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea4…e097backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes	42c	24$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	98	58.2%57 W · 41 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f06…cd40backed No	59c	21.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03?this page
Will Ipswich vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?No won
Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event