NFL · resolved market
Will Sam Darnold win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b95fdf56982eb03e57d14ecbfbd0e21f0abdcc857bc3b809a1336d5cd94d4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 11c | 5,064$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 28c | 4,690$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 28c | 622.17$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 11c | 462$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 67c | 378.79$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 31c | 375.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 14c | 373.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 337.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…72a0backed Yes | 52c | 230.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…030fbacked Yes | 54c | 189.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 19c | 151.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 14c | 145.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 14c | 104.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 24c | 94.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 127 | 60.6%77 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 69c | 59.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Darnold win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?this page
- Will Anthony Richardson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
- Will Bryce Young win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
- Will Damar Hamlin win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
- Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?Yes won
- Will Kirk Cousins win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
- Will Kyler Murray win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
- Will Nick Chubb win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
- Will Russell Wilson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.