Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bdbf0347197300954bfb9ebedafe12cdb1229967a2546a2f9988068f8ac4329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 835.89$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.96 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 49c | 659.05$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.18 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 68c | 422.45$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 299.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 281.02$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 275.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 47c | 260.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 222.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 49c | 174.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Yes | 76c | 163.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed Yes | 67c | 148.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 76c | 145.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 137.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 43c | 131.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 9c | 128.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 124.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 106.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 106.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 104.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 55c | 99.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 93.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 88.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 82.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 42c | 79.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 76.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 74.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 71.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 70.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 60.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 58.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked Yes | 74c | 54.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 50.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 50.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 49.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 47.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 44.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 42.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 42.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 79c | 39.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 74c | 38.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 31.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 29.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 36c | 28.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 53c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 70c | 25.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 60c | 20.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 58c | 19.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 66c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.