Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6bee7d6090216d4de65bc29cffba0efd900607a8591415faf8da31b7a01118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 1,242$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.39 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 33c | 799$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.66 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 66c | 624.8$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.26 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 459$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 399$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 299.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 290.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 231.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 186.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 146$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 54c | 128.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 23c | 108.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 102.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 54c | 100.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 17c | 96.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 91.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 47c | 86.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 73c | 80.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 38c | 79.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 70c | 57.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 61c | 36.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 37c | 29.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 25.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd61…aaf7backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…c253backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…7714backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.