NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c73d1274e9ecdae9ed86bcb6678fb8072e994e911b2871300e7a7ec1bc425df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Chiefs, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4bd…bf7bbacked Chiefs | 75c | 21,459$16,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,028.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 31c | 10,717$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,404.45 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Cardinals | 26c | 4,728$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.98 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Chiefs | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cardinals | 27c | 2,312$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.63 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Cardinals | 28c | 2,003$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Chiefs | 2c | 1,935$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cardinals | 25c | 1,755$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.48 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Cardinals | 60c | 1,717$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Cardinals | 64c | 1,630$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.06 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Chiefs | 56c | 1,200$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Chiefs | 54c | 1,183$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.03 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Cardinals | 45c | 1,112$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.12 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Chiefs | 56c | 992.33$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.7 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cardinals | 25c | 824$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.59 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 55c | 798.96$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.43 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Chiefs | 58c | 789.07$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cardinals | 36c | 742.6$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.52 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Cardinals | 45c | 719.19$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.84 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Cardinals | 52c | 702$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.96 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Cardinals | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Chiefs | 32c | 619.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Chiefs | 55c | 385$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Chiefs | 4c | 351.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cardinals | 28c | 330.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.06 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Cardinals | 42c | 297.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Chiefs | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Chiefs | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 219.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Cardinals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Cardinals | 43c | 199.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +522.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chiefs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Cardinals | 41c | 177.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Cardinals | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Cardinals | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Chiefs | 58c | 127$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Cardinals | 42c | 123.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Chiefs | 10c | 117.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Chiefs | 62c | 113.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Cardinals | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Chiefs | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Cardinals | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cardinals | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed Chiefs | 79c | 76.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ab…a6ebbacked Cardinals | 44c | 57.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Chiefs | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Chiefs | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…d7febacked Chiefs | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chiefs | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Chiefs | 35c | 48.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Chiefs | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed Cardinals | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cardinals | 41c | 40.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Cardinals | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…cc7fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…1ecabacked Chiefs | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…451abacked Chiefs | 58c | 35.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Cardinals | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…cd8cbacked Chiefs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Cardinals | 44c | 33.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…6b6bbacked Chiefs | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Cardinals | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Cardinals | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…95cebacked Cardinals | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Cardinals | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Cardinals | 44c | 26.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…b83fbacked Chiefs | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chiefs | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Chiefs | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bb…ed17backed Cardinals | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 43c | 24.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…8b5ebacked Chiefs | 57c | 22.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Chiefs | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…6ab8backed Chiefs | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.