Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd53779c6f59f4860126ff5d36a718e6ed0a8421b7bfaf2bcf93d5e35d47705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 3,476$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.29 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 2,936$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 2,887$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,859$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,474$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 1c | 1,896$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,009$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 846.04$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 342.71$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 34c | 327.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 315.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 305$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 40c | 252.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 198.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 185.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 176.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 176$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 172$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 42c | 157.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 71c | 143$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 138$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 48c | 134.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 132.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 123.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 120.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 119$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 59c | 118.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 113.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 107.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 42c | 104.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 99.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…e4ecbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 59c | 85.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 79.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 77.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 31c | 71.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 67c | 67.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 37c | 65.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 42c | 62.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 61.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 58.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 58.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 45.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 44.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 30c | 43.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 36.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 31.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 65c | 30.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 27.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…5025backed No | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…c93fbacked Yes | 80c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 68c | 16.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 79c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 77c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.