Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1bdb5cd3e68ecb3422001ca7d247111482039d47c2e5f68541a3473f6d4bb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 303.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 37c | 289$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 36c | 223.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 73c | 198.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 40c | 176.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 73c | 168.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 164.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 153.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 145.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 136$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 134.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 64c | 117.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 109.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…6333backed Yes | 42c | 107.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 101.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 54c | 92.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 90.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…e4ecbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 52c | 84.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 82.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 79.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 37c | 76.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 66.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 77c | 65.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 63.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 60.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 80c | 60.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 59.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 59.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 58.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 63c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 47.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 45c | 44.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 29c | 43.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 46c | 41.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 40.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 78c | 39.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 38.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 31.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 31.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 76c | 30.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 78c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…ef15backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 60c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 24.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 22.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 62c | 20.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 62c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed No | 75c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.