Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cedc301a52e4873fefeef3110f89850fbc375f16cb52f30f8e5c84a02da4319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 2,292$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 53c | 1,924$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.95 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,545$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.07 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,006$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 77c | 916.51$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.82 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 22c | 604.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 532.32$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 305.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 50c | 290.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 29c | 203$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 70c | 189.83$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 169.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed No | 49c | 164.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 17c | 158.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 153.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 143.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 66c | 137.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 115$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 48c | 109.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 99.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 90.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…63bcbacked Yes | 31c | 83.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 79.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 79.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 68.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 58.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 57.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 22c | 55.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 54c | 55.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 42c | 49.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 49.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 47.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 44.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 29c | 44.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 33c | 41.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 42c | 35.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 34.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 31.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 31.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 58c | 30.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 45c | 26.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 72c | 21.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 57c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 70c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.