Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8163c623ab425624c010cd94d00cbf9f0ffb75df1e172d56f8173eb7ff7aaa42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,861$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 44c | 1,313$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.08 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 767.07$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 727.02$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 545.4$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 47c | 472.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 406.34$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 51c | 393$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.49 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 389.63$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 48c | 350.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.28 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 314.28$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 247$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 55c | 239.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 222.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 59c | 222.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 43c | 203.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 51c | 199.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 56c | 178.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 49c | 167.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 159$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 16c | 141.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 121.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 101.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 50c | 96.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 46c | 89.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…972dbacked Yes | 44c | 82.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 82.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 81.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 77.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 43c | 70.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 66.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 47c | 66.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 79c | 61.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 47c | 56.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 50c | 54.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 51c | 54.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 54.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 38c | 50.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 46c | 49.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 49.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 49.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 52c | 48.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 46.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 43c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 49c | 42.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 53c | 42.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 41.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 41.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 49c | 40.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 52c | 36.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 36.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 33.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 33.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 40c | 29.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 22.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 57c | 21.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 56c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.