Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d41367c7c9f43ed27a346d93007566df084809a8407dd8deaf36c0e8929af75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 299.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 249.48$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 237.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 161.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 54c | 151.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 137$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 78c | 127.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 124.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 59c | 112.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 108.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 94.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 86.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 84.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 82.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 76.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 75.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 70.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 55.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 53.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 52.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 52.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 48.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 53c | 47.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 58c | 45.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 45.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 43c | 44.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 44.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 38.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 37.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 34.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 32.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 32.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 47c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 72c | 31.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 31.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 44c | 29.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 28.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 26.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 40c | 25.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 42c | 23.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 67c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 79c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.