Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02868bb7787e2bf4ff18383c116edf5e6f6ced6156f49e65991a3c381198480b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 60c | 335.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 267.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 242.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 43c | 233.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 26c | 217.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 192.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 187.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 164.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 162.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 144.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 75c | 133.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 124.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed No | 40c | 113.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 54c | 110.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 106.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 102.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 27c | 99.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 98.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 97.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…10efbacked Yes | 28c | 93.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 92.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 25c | 83.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 60c | 82.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 33c | 81.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 77.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 75.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 72.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 57c | 66.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 66.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 30c | 65.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 58.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 56.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 54.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 58c | 52.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 51.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 50.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 27c | 49.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…a520backed Yes | 68c | 47.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 47.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 47.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 27c | 46.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 28c | 46.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 44c | 46.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 44.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 33c | 43.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 42.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 47c | 41.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 25c | 41.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 40.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 39.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 38.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 37.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 34c | 37.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…18afbacked No | 42c | 35.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 31c | 33.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 31.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 30.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 30.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 28.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 60c | 28.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 27.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed No | 75c | 18.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed No | 65c | 18.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 63c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 17.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 71c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.