Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b33e78435ae0a2185e15abc0f33bbb6612ce9e76cfb002b1536b117e1ebaee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 1,387$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.43 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 892.43$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 453.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 299.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 169.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 16c | 134.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 116$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 114.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 109.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…e64bbacked Yes | 39c | 109.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 104.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 101.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 96.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 76.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 75.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 70.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 69.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 39c | 66.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 61.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 67c | 57.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 50.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 48.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked No | 71c | 42.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 41.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 37.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 38c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 65c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 75c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…a270backed No | 64c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 65c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 62c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.